Thursday, October 30, 2014

WTI $75 the tipping point to start shutting down shale oil production

Goldman via ZeroHedge : "Our oil forecast calls for a slowdown in US shale oil production which our North American Energy equity research team led by Brian Singer estimates will occur at $75/bbl WTI prices.

They estimate that the WTI oil price at which average wells in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian Basin plays achieve an 11% IRR ranges between $70-$80/bbl. More importantly, they believe that funding gap constraints below $80/bbl WTI will ultimately drive the slowdown in production."

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

How and why to fund #freetransit from externalities of the auto

From the website of CarfreeFrance, an analysis of public transport funding and why going to fare-free makes sense. If you do not read French, this is very readable in Google translate.

Driving down, #autosprawl subsidy up. Business as usual in US.

(US PIRG): "Eleven proposed highway projects across the country – slated to cost at least $13 billion – exemplify the need for a fresh approach to transportation spending. These projects, some of them originally proposed decades ago, either address problems that do not exist, or have serious negative impacts on surrounding communities that undercut their value. They are but a sampling of many questionable highway projects across the country that could cost taxpayers tens of billions more dollars to build, and many more billions over the course of upcoming decades to maintain."

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

#Freetransit "costs too much," but US spends $8.3M/day to drop bombs on muslims

Arab News: "WASHINGTON: The Pentagon said in updated figures on Monday the average daily cost of the fight against Islamic State (IS) militants has risen to $8.3 million, or a total of $580 million between Aug. 8 and Oct. 16."

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Fatal flaw of #degrowth movement

Humans have been divided by capitalism into two groups, the haves and the have-nots.

The degrowth movement is dominated by the haves, and the message is "we have to live with less."

This message falls on deaf ears with the have-nots -- the only group with the power to implement degrowth.

Fatal flaw.

Friday, October 24, 2014

US cannot afford any more welfare for cars

We try to document the direct and indirect subsidy for the auto-and-sprawl system on this blog and also here. One of the biggest "hidden" costs of this system is the US military. The autosprawl interests in the US use its military to maintain control of energy sources and routes -- giving more attention to high net-energy locations, such as Kirkuk, Iraq.

It costs the US taxpayer about $2M to kill one Islamic State fighter. Even if that were affordable, it will not work, as ten more join for each one killed.

This waste of money is necessary to prop up the billionaires who rely on the autosprawl system for their wealth. If the US loses control of energy prices, these billionaires will suffer huge losses.

The people of the US should stop wasting this money. They cannot influence their federal government, but they can act locally by implementing free buses in cities and towns. This policy will actually save money as all the hidden costs of cars and sprawl start to go down.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

World recession driving oil price war

As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy - "Others say the kingdom is facing lower prices no matter what it does because it cannot control the causes of the price dive, which include the drilling frenzy in North America and falling demand in Europe, Japan and much of the developing world. So it makes sense for the Saudis to defend their share of the global market, oil experts say."

Saturday, October 18, 2014

The US has all the oil it needs -- time to stop killing Muslims

The only reason the US needs to control world energy prices is because it has a car-dependent infrastructure on which the fortunes of the top billionaires depend.

The simple answer to this is: default, degrow, decarbonize, and decolonize.

Default: stop bailing out the wealthy
Degrow: urbanize, educate, and drop the birth rate
Decarbonize: make public transit free and gradually eliminate the private auto
Decolonize: stop invading other peoples countries to steal resorces.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Democracy? People want #publictransit, Congress does not.

Montgomery Herald: Opinion: "More than two-thirds of Americans tell Mineta that they’d like the federal government to increase investment in public transportation.
Despite this support, lawmakers have not increased revenues for our surface transportation needs since 1993. Lawmakers passed a stopgap measure that restored $10.8 billion to the Highway Trust Fund and Mass Transit Account in July. This will only keep the fund afloat through May of next year."

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Shift to mass transit could save more than $100 trillion "More than $100 trillion in public and private spending could be saved between now and 2050 if the world expands public transportation, walking and cycling in cities, according to a new report released by the University of California, Davis, and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. Additionally, reductions in carbon dioxide emissions reaching 1,700 megatons per year in 2050 could be achieved if this shift occurs."

Monday, October 13, 2014

The most obvious strategy for reducing energy wars -- reduce demand

Resource Insights: World War III: It's here and energy is largely behind it: "One of the most obvious strategies for responding to these conflicts--deep, rapid and permanent reductions in fossil fuel energy consumption through efficiency measures, conservation, and expansion of renewable energy--does not seem to be a prominent part of the policy mix. Such a reduction would not necessarily cause these conflicts to disappear; but they might become far less dangerous since the major powers would be less interested in them and thus less likely to make a miscalculation that would lead to a larger global conflict."

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Biosphere supports economy which determines morality

What comes first, the biosphere or human economics. If you got that wrong, you can stop reading now. What about morality? We humans invent gods and place them above all creation. Without economics, i.e. food, water, shelter, etc., all the talk about superior beings doesn't mean much.

At this time as our species is nearing a major contraction, all the three are under threat. We are collapsing on all fronts.

We should bring the three areas into alignment. Find a path that satisfies people's desire for a better environment, better life, and spiritual bliss.

The auto and sprawl are the enemy in every case. They promote wasteful, selfish living. What power can bring them down? We say this: make urban buses fare-free, move to town, educate all children. As a result, birth rate will drop. Walking and bicycles will gradually replace most of the buses. Selfishness will be exposed as harmful and useless.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

#Freetransit idea spreading fast across Poland, ridership is up, congestion down.

Here is a 22 minute video from Tallinn TV on the benefits of free public transit in Poland. Staring at minute 12:33 it is in English.
"It's not more expensive, it is cheaper, and ridership is up by 4 times."
It will cost more as more people ride, but it is the best use of public funds. It is only 1.5% of city budget (Zory).

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Low Oil Prices: Sign of a Debt Bubble Collapse, Leading to the End of Oil Supply?

Our Finite World: "I would argue that falling commodity prices are bad news. It likely means that the debt bubble which has been holding up the world economy for a very long time–since World War II, at least–is failing to expand sufficiently. If the debt bubble collapses, we will be in huge difficulty."

UK Oil and gas industry calls for more government subsidy as costs rise 60%

Blue and Green Tomorrow: "The UK oil and gas industry’s economic outlook has revealed rising costs for the sector, prompting calls for the government to provide more tax incentives to retrieve £1 trillion investment and fully exploit the country’s declining offshore reserves."