Saturday, May 27, 2017

Oil glut IS #peakoil

Easy-to-extract oil peaked in 2005. It is now declining at about 6% a year. Hard-to-extract oil is replacing some of the loss, but at a price that is too high for consumers and too low for producers. This is why the price seems to fluctuate out of control.

There is a hot war over one last large reserve of easy oil under Kirkuk, Iraq. More money will eventually be spent on this war than can possibly be recouped in profits -- but profits are just a small part of oil. Oil is blood to modern society. Whoever controls it has tremendous power.

So we are in the impossible situation that money is being borrowed and lavished on getting oil, while the market is in a glut.

You can imagine how threatened the bankers are with all the debt that is in danger of default if they don't get the easy oil, or if recession deepens and demand falls even more.

Here are some of their nightmares.
  • reduced energy demand due to recession
  • free transit (notice how quickly they shut down the idea in Paris)
  • falling birth rates 
  • rebellion (which they call terrorism)
  • default 

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Desperate oil troll trying to kill #publictransit

Metro Report: "‘The administration has made it clear that infrastructure investment is important for our country’s economic prosperity’, said Richard White, Acting President & CEO of APTA. ‘This budget proposal to eliminate public transportation infrastructure projects is inconsistent with addressing critical transportation needs and helping America’s economy prosper.’

APTA reports that the proposed infrastructure initiative would make $200bn available over 10 years to attract private-sector match funding worth up to $1tr. Yet there are no details on how that money would be prioritised or allocated, APTA warns.

‘Many of the public transit ballot initiatives that voters approved last year raised local and state dollars that would serve as a match to federal dollars’, explains White. ‘This significant cut in federal funding rejects the voters’ will because those projects were proposed with the expectation that the federal government would be a responsible funding partner.’"

Humans cannot survive 4 degrees rise in global avg temp

Nature Bats Last: "If you’re too busy to read the evidence presented below, here’s the bottom line: On a planet 4 C hotter than baseline, all we can prepare for is human extinction (from Oliver Tickell’s 2008 synthesis in the Guardian). Tickell is taking a conservative approach, considering humans have not been present at 3.3 C or more above baseline (i.e., the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, commonly accepted as 1750). I cannot imagine a scenario involving a rapid rise in global-average temperature and also retention of habitat for humans."

https://youtu.be/dU7iBM45mHQ

Monday, May 22, 2017

Abrupt #climatechange

Do you feel that we have entered the sharp turn of the exponential curve of warming? That there is no chance of turning back?

Ok. It is likely you are right. Now, what to do.

We should make our last years as painless as possible. Let's go into degrowth by stopping the waste and sharing what is left.

The private auto is probably the best example of waste. Not just because it is an anti-social wasteful consumer product. But because it promotes sprawl and growth. Let's abolish it.

#Heat or #Emissions?

The idea of reducing human carbon emissions is to reduce greenhouse effect and thereby reduce the temperature of the biosphere.

There are two ways to reduce human emissions. Stop producing them, or get energy from non-carbon sources.

The main problem with getting energy from non-carbon sources is that there is nothing about them that curbs growth. And as long as there is growth in human activity, there will be more heat. That heat will release stored natural carbon and generate more emissions, undoing all efforts.

We can address heat directly, and reduce human emissions at the same time by reversing growth, degrowth.

There is some low-hanging fruit for degrowth. The auto and sprawl system is very wasteful. It could be quickly and severely tightened up by abolishing the private auto. Along with this, comprehensive health care and education would accelerate falling birth rates.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Renewables and electric cars will increase carbon emissions

Cars promote sprawl. Sprawl wastes energy. Buildings are spread out. Each one needs separate heating, cooling, lawn-care, parking, sewer lines, roads, etc.

Sprawl is sacred to capitalism because it means growth. Even if that growth is mostly waste, capitalism doesn't care. More cars, more babies, more leaf-blowers... that is the goal.

All this waste. The people crowing about "renewables" are not suggesting ending the waste. They just want more fuel on the fire. To test this statement, ask them if they will openly advocate #freetransit as part of their "keep it in the ground" mantra.

There is nothing inherent to renewables that leads to degrowth. In fact, renewables contain fossil-fuels and depend on the fossil-fuel created system.

So, since renewables do not reduce growth, growth will continue in the new "green economy." Growth generates heat and heat melts clathrates. The carbon emitted from the clathrates will overwhelm any emission reduction from the renewables.

It can be said then, that renewables increase carbon emissions.

Melting soil in cold regions releasing long-held CO2

ScienceAlert: "That's an amount comparable to all the emissions from the US commercial sector in a single year.

The chief reason for the greater CO2 release was that as Alaska has warmed up, emissions from once frozen tundra in winter are increasing - presumably because the ground is not refreezing as quickly.

"The soils are warmer deeper, and as they freeze in the fall, the temperature of every soil depth has to come to zero before they hard freeze," Commane said."

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Miles of Ice Collapsing Into the Sea

The New York Times: "A rapid disintegration of Antarctica might, in the worst case, cause the sea to rise so fast that tens of millions of coastal refugees would have to flee inland, potentially straining societies to the breaking point. Climate scientists used to regard that scenario as fit only for Hollywood disaster scripts. But these days, they cannot rule it out with any great confidence."

Friday, May 19, 2017

Adding up the feedbacks, biosphere goes over 22C by 2027

Nature Bats Last: "In total, Carana ends up with 10.02 C above baseline by mid-2026, or about 23.5 C. That’d be the highest global-average temperature on this planet during the last 2,000,000,000 years. Taking a conservative approach at every step, I conclude “only” an 8.71-degree rise in temperature by mid-2026. As a result, I conclude global-average temperature at that time will be about 22.2 C (13.5 C + 8.71 C). This is barely above 22 C, the temperature at which Earth has most commonly found itself during the last 2,000,000,000 years. I suspect it’s more likely, based on the conservative journal literature, that Earth will hit about 23 C in a decade. There is no reason to expect Earth to start cooling until the heat engine of civilization is turned off and dozens of self-reinforcing feedback loops are inexplicably reversed."

Thursday, May 18, 2017

What's so great about #freetransit?

  • saves money for riders
  • saves money for city as a whole
  • reduces bureaucracy
  • immediate reduction in energy use
  • easy to implement
  • people love it
  • makes buses more efficient
  • leads to urbanization and falling birth rate
  • reduces incentives for sprawl
the list goes on and on and on...
see more

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Fast track to reduce #heat

Social and corporate media are full of ideas for human designed carbon-capture and renewable energy sources.

What is not understood is that according to physics, human activity generates heat. This happens no matter what the fuel is. So, if that activity is building a solar array, or a carbon-capture device, that activity generates heat.

The only way to reduce heat is to reduce activity.

One way is to address the biggest problems first. Ten percent of humans use half the energy. A lot of this energy is wasted by cars sitting in traffic jams. But cars are not even necessary. Humans have been on earth 200,000 years, but cars less than 150 years. We don't need them. There are many other benefits to ending cars besides the obvious reduction of fuel waste.

By abolishing the private auto, we can:

  • reduce energy waste
  • take away the major driver of sprawl and growth
  • reduce inequality of energy use
  • make cities attractive
  • free up money for education and healthcare to make birth rates fall
  • turn suburbs into permaculture carbon sinks


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Natural carbon-capture destroyed by logging

World Economic Forum : "Forests have been removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing carbon for more than 300 million years. When we cut down or burn trees and disturb forest soils, we release that stored carbon to the atmosphere. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, one-third of all carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere from human activities have come from deforestation."

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Our main problem is #heat, some scientists predicting human extinction

Arctic News : "How much could temperatures rise? As above image shows, a rise of more than 10°C (18°F) could take place, resulting in mass extinction of many species, including humans."

Friday, May 12, 2017

Autoautos are a hi-tech desperate attempt to save #autosprawl

CityLab: "But the dream of cheap, clean mobility in cities might run up against some harsh realities—soaring energy consumption, supercharged sprawl, and intensified traffic congestion—if AVs are simply deployed to encourage more driving."

Agriculture on the Brink

truth-out : ""In just one year, the equivalent of an entire population of Egypt is added to the world's population," he said. "Driving up demand for food in the face of severe limitations on agricultural capacity.""

Buses vs Cars

免費公共汽車在台灣:

  • Buses bring customers to market
  • Cars block access to the market
  • Buses work 18 hours a day
  • Cars sit 18 hours a day 
  • Buses free up space
  • Cars take up space
  • Buses are safe
  • Cars are dangerous
  • Buses allow you to text
  • Cars and texting are deadly 
  • Buses help you make new friends
  • Cars are anti-social, annoy pedestrians\

Can you add to this list?

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

When the permafrost melts, it won't matter how many windmills we have

InsideClimate News: "Soaring temperatures in the Arctic have triggered a huge seasonal surge in carbon dioxide emissions from thawing permafrost and may be tipping the region toward becoming a net source of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, a new study shows."

Monday, May 8, 2017

To get peace and economic security, Americans will have to give up cars

This tweet shows that many Americans are fed up with hypocrisy and corruption of the GOP. But why does the GOP have so much power?

The American system is dependent on wasting energy. There are trillions of dollars worth of autosprawl infrastructure. Roads, highways, cul-de-sacs, refineries, pipelines, and massive military spending to protect energy sources and routes.

As long as there is sprawl, there will be Trumps.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

So far, the alarmists have been right, time to listen?

Inhabitat : "Microbiologist Frank Fenner, whose work helped defeat smallpox, said in 2010 “humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction, and climate change.” Biologist Neil Dawe said it wouldn’t surprise him if the generation following him saw the end of humanity. Ecologist Guy McPherson went so far as to say humanity could be extinct by 2026."

Friday, May 5, 2017

All hell will break loose

For years, alarmists have warned that oil will peak and the biosphere will melt.

We were ridiculed and marginalized.

Now the systems are collapsing. But cognitive dissonance reigns.

Even the "resistance" does not see sprawl as a problem.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Another in the long list of polls shows Americans like #publictransit

HNTB Finds Americans Recognize Benefits of Public Transportation: "Almost nine in 10 Americans (88 percent) recognize public transportation systems provide a wide array of benefits to the communities they serve, according to a new HNTB Corporation America THINKS public opinion survey."

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Arctic warming escalates, while humans escalate wars for oil

Nature : "“The take-home message is that the Arctic is unravelling,” says Rafe Pomerance, who chairs a network of conservation groups called Arctic 21 and was a deputy assistant secretary of state for environment and development under US President Bill Clinton. “The fate of the Arctic has to be moved out of the world of scientific observation and into the world of government policy.”"