More buses needed, not hyperloop, self-driving-car scams

The typical general-purpose lane of traffic in a city can carry around 1,000-2,000 people per hour. If you create a bus-only lane, that number jumps up to 4,000-8,000 per hour. If you give over more of the street to transit and create a transitway that goes up to 10,000-25,000 people per hour.

https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/missing-the-bus/ 

UN solution for CO2 -- better cars

Zero-emission automobiles, of course, do not and cannot ever exist. 

All automobiles require fuel, and even solar panels, wind turbines, hydro-electric dams, and nuclear power plants produce GHG emissions in their construction and maintenance. The emissions, in these minor examples as well as in the coal and natural gas plants that are the major sources of “EV” power, merely occur at locations other than a tailpipe. But occur they most certainly still do, despite automakers’ labels suggesting otherwise. Shame on the United Nations for missing and obscuring this crucial fact.

https://www.deathbycar.info/gaps-indeed/ 

Global CO2 emissions growth accelerating, not declining

Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew 1.7% in 2018 to reach a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2. It was the highest rate of growth since 2013, and 70% higher than the average increase since 2010. Last year's growth of 560 Mt was equivalent to the total emissions from international aviation.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-co2-status-report-2019/emissions? 

China energy/emission going up, up, up.

China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production grew by an estimated 4% in the first half of 2019, analysis of preliminary data suggests. 

Power-sector emissions, which had driven the rebound in overall emissions since 2017, flattened off. However, there was a surge in real estate and infrastructure construction that saw emissions from steel and cement expand rapidly. 

Estimates based on preliminary data for the first half of 2019, compared to the same period last year, indicate that:

• China’s coal demand increased by 3%;
• Oil demand was up 6%;
• Gas demand rose by 12%; and
• Cement production increased by 7%.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019? 

Will Green New Deal successfully address #climate or #energy problems?

Climate, energy, and economy are linked and there is no evidence of de-linking.

Climate solutions can be supply-side or demand-side.

There is confusion about demand. Some assume that demand is what we measure in the market. But what about those who don't come to the market? The Jevons principle means that as long as there is demand there can be no energy savings.

In any case, there are a billion people who are saving up for a car. Cars promote sprawl and growth. Until economy and climate are de-linked, that means a hotter earth [biosphere], regardless of what fuel is used.

What is a good demand-side solution? The money currently spent on oil wars could provide free public transit, free education, and free health care. This would cause birth rates to fall more quickly -- the most effective way to reduce demand.

Clear explanation of #jevons, and why #efficiency and #technofix make things worse

Taking this global perspective with respect to the economy, efficiency gains will do the exact opposite of what efficiency policy advocates claim it will do. If technological changes allow global energy productivity or energy efficiency to increase, then civilization will grow faster into the resources that sustain it. This grows the economy, but it also means that energy consumption and CO2 emissions accelerate.

CO2 emissions can be stabilized despite efficiency gains. But this is possible only if decarbonization occurs as quickly as energy consumption grows. At today’s consumption growth rates, this would require roughly one new nuclear power plant, or equivalent in renewables, to be deployed each day.

http://nephologue.blogspot.com/2018/09/is-increasing-energy-efficiency-driving.html? 

No happy #technofix for agriculture

"Many changes that have occurred in agriculture make us more, not less, impacted by climate change," Lobell explained. "A lot of productivity-enhancing changes are more effective in good weather, and so the stakes for having good weather go up."

And that good weather, the report makes clear, is not on the horizon.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29112018/climate-change-agriculture-risk-farm-technology-science-report?fbclid=IwAR3EJhjqyAeRIj_jCI5QemXTsPuaVINFjHhNKmR2tiAovWaCeL2GHsoDysg

Physicist shows human energy need directly tied to total historical accumulation of economic production

Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production—or p×g—through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9


Human energy use generates heat. This heat will be generated in direct proportion to growth and maintenance of built infrastructure. It does not matter what fuel is used. Humans cannot grow themselves into a cooler earth.

Carbon offsets do not work

"Assume I broke my (self-imposed) seven-year refusal to fly, paid my £35 offset and boarded a plane from Manchester to London for the conference. In doing so, I add to the already severe congestion at airports, causing delays and allowing politicians to argue for greater airport capacity, arguments only reinforced by the rise in passengers turning to offsets. To meet increasing demand, airlines are encouraged to order new aircraft, which they promise will be more efficient. Feeling pressure, a future government approves new runways, but the extra flights and emissions swamp efficiency gains from the cleaner engines.

Meanwhile, in an Indian village where my offset money has helped to fund a wind turbine, the villagers now have the (low-carbon) electricity to watch television, which provides advertisers of a petrol-fuelled moped with more viewers, and customers. A fuel depot follows, to meet the new demand, and encourages others to invest in old trucks to transport goods between villages. Within 30 years, the village and surroundings have new roads and many more petrol-fuelled mopeds, cars and trucks. Meanwhile, the emissions from my original flight are still having a warming impact, and will do for another 100 years or so."

Kevin Anderson quoted on Redd-Monitor 

artificial intelligence meets thermodynamics

Imagine a young man sitting at his computer terminal writing fake news or creating fake audios. All of a sudden, the lights flicker and the power goes down intermittently. Why? No one seems to know, but he hears rumors that there are chronic fuel shortages at the power plants. He hears other rumors that the power plants are having trouble getting spare parts. 

Then he decides to buy a new and fancier computer screen. But there are none in the stores. Why? Well, no one seems to know — but there are rumors that the supply chains to Asia are starting to fail. 

He then calls the company that provides support for his AI software. There is no reply — they seem to have gone out of business. Why? No one seems to know. 

He now realizes that he and his family don’t have enough food to eat and the grocery store shelves are bare. 

At this point the news is far from fake. The harsh truth is that he is hungry, frightened and totally unemployable.

ChemEng  on Resource Insights

#technofix futurism selling snake oil

resourceinsights So, as this existential problem literally burns our forests, scorches our crops (thereby threatening a global food crisis) and brings drought to those thirsting for water and floods to those who already have too much—even as we continue down this path of destruction, the artificial intelligence labs and 3D printing equipment makers are predicted by futurists to be racing forward to a future that doesn't include the possibly fatal ravages of climate change.

Gollyworld, where technology allows infinite growth

The technofix crowd tries to convince us that growth can go on. Here is a good response from Richard Heinberg of the PostCarbon Institute.

undark.org Nordhaus seems to think we are exceptions to the rules. Still, as archaeologists have affirmed, many past human societies consumed resources or polluted environments to the point of collapse. Granted, societies have failed for other reasons as well, including invasion, over-extension of empire, or natural climate change. Yet in cases where societies depleted forests, fisheries, freshwater, or topsoil, the consequences were dire.

Et tu, Kos?

dailykos: "That alone would have created a big splash, but Musk was not done.  He followed up with a tweet stating that Tesla would be unveiling a pick-up truck in 18 to 24 months.  Since this has become an ever more important segment of vehicle sales and auto industry profits and is a segment currently devoid of production electric vehicles, this could have a huge impact and would, once again, place Tesla far ahead of the competition."

Autosprawl is collapsing because of falling net energy in oil. It costs more joules to extract and produce liquid fuel than joules gained. One way to extend the life of sprawl is to generate electricity from natural gas and run cars on electricity. This will keep sprawl going a few more years -- years that we desperately need to reduce sprawl and growth. Electric vehicles simply make more certain the arrival of heat disaster.

Cars do nothing but promote sprawl and growth -- no matter what they burn

Technofix advocates have replaced climate delayers/deniers as the block to progress. Here they rave about electric cars. Electric cars are nothing but more sprawl, more sprawl subsidy, and more growth.

ThinkProgress: "An almost two-century-old technology with virtually no market penetration just six years ago is now on track to become a cornerstone solution in the fight to avoid catastrophic climate change, the International Energy Agency (the IEA) reported this month. If that isn’t an energy miracle, what is?"

Why isn’t an electric car the magic solution that everyone wants?

• An electric car is still dangerous to pedestrians, bicyclists, and other drivers.
• An electric car requires a tremendous amount of land to rest and operate.
• An electric car depends on coal-powered electricity in most situations.
• An electric car will not alleviate congestion.
• An electric car will not level the mobility playing field.

Read more at Reimagine an Urban Paradise

Cars are inherently anti-biosphere - fossil fuel or no

...However, even if we were to devise a perfect car, one made out of recycled tires and printer paper, one that harnesses photosynthesis to not only be carbon-neutral, but actually make energy from atmospheric C02, even if we could make a car with no direct environmental impact, it would still be an environmental and social disaster. Our waterways are contaminated by engine fluids and lubricants that run off of road surfaces. Our natural groundwater tables are falling because rainwater is unable to penetrate pavement. Cars still allow sprawling development that eats up wild lands and spits out bland suburbia. Species' ranges in the few precious areas of wilderness that we have are disrupted by highways. We would still live in a society where we shut ourselves off from one another in our own private boxes, promoting inequality and a lack of respect for shared humanity. We would still leave our inner cities to dangle. Our streets would still be unsafe places for children to play, and we would still kill thousands every year in automobile crashes. Alternative fuels are, on a perfect day, a solution to only a few of the myriad problems that cars cause.... Riding in Riverside