Monday, July 2, 2012

End of #peakoil? No.

The credit bubble is pulling out expensive oil. This will not last. A combination of default, deleveraging, and money-printing will be tried, but there are externalities which cannot be overcome.
  • War, first and foremost. There are plenty of oil wars on the drawing board. As the U.S. loses more and more it will go nuclear. Oil storage and shipping will be a major target. 
  • Food collapse. Drought and flood will destroy farmland and more oil will be needed to keep food production up. 
  • Ecological collapse. The resources needed to fix climate disasters will compete for "money" needed for oil. These disasters are just getting started.
Peak oil has never been solely about physical supply. The curve is about supply and demand, which is changing slightly right now. But there is a misunderstanding about what is affordable. There is an assumption that all the world can be like an American suburb. Not gonna happen.