Oil industry needs $3Trillion to make it to 2020

ICYMI: Summer 2016 Oil Recap — D. Ray Long: "In a recent report, John England and Andrew Slaughter at Deloitte conclude that, at minimum. the global upstream industry will need to invest about $3 trillion during 2016-2020 to ensure long-term sustainability.

It's an open question if anyone actually wants to spend that money for less than stellar returns. Recall Steven Kopits' wonderful talk from over two years ago where I wrote:

"Kopits addresses the "flatness" of oil production since 2005, and why the decline has not been steeper. In short, this is because we threw a lot of money at it to the tune of $3.5 trillion spent maintaining the legacy oil and gas system since 2005. What did we get for all this invested money? Sadly what we got was a decline in legacy oil production of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd).""

Energy growth must stop, will stop--all forms of energy.

There are several problems with renewable energy sources, we address only the show-stoppers.

There is no sign that renewables have or will reduce fossil use.

Renewables make heavy use of fossil-fuels to produce, install, and operate.

What is it made of? Lots of steel, concrete and advanced plastic. Material requirements of a modern wind turbine have been reviewed by the United States Geological Survey. On average 1 MW of wind capacity requires 103 tonnes of stainless steel, 402 tonnes of concrete, 6.8 tonnes of fiberglass, 3 tonnes of copper and 20 tonnes of cast iron. The elegant blades are made of fiberglass, the skyscraper sized tower of steel, and the base of concrete. http://www.theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/344771/can-you-make-wind-turbine-without-fossil-fuels

Renewables lead people away from degrowth, wasting valuable time.

First, I refer you to the previous post: the continued growth of any energy technology—if consumed on the planet—will bring us to a boil. Beyond that, we hit astrophysically nonsensical limits within centuries. So energy scale must cease growth. Likewise, efficiency limits will prevent us from increasing our effective energy available without bound. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/can-economic-growth-last/

International targets for heat reduction will not be reached

Common Dreams: "Speaking at a University of Oxford conference this week, led by leading U.K. climate researcher Richard Betts, scientists said global greenhouse gas emissions are not likely to slow down quickly enough to avoid passing the 1.5°C target.

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was agreed to in the landmark Paris agreement negotiated by 195 nations last year."

Looks like we might continue the car culture right up to the end. Will you take action and join us now?

Renewables promote growth, do not reduce fossil-fuel usage.

Here is projected world energy use. You can argue that fossil-fuels would be higher without renewables, but you cannot argue that renewables will make fossil-fuels go down. So where is the emission reduction. And could not a better result be achieved by degrowth? The only downturn in liquids and natural gas is from recession.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26212

What about this solar array? How much fossil-fuel to support it?

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-09-23/carbon-tracker-analysis-renewables-are-already-outcompeting-fossil-fuels

Would it not be better to have fewer suburban homes than an array like this to supply them?

Campaign for fare-free public transportation is working

The hard work of public transport advocacy is showing progress. This blog is part of  a network of 40 blogs based in the US maintained with only a handful of activists, In just a few years, what have we accomplished?

• re-framed debate from the cost of buses to the cost of cars
• exposed the canard about free buses being too crowded
• exposed the canard about free buses being full of homeless
• silenced the "nothing is free" silliness
• encouraged people to join advocacy groups
• reaching a 1000 readers a day on social media
• worked with international fare-free advocates in 16 countries

What if you joined us? Become a blogger. It's easy. Write your opinion, or post links to news and opinion that helps expose the private auto for what it is... bad for climate, bad for economy, and heavily subsidized.

You can make a difference... maybe even save the biosphere.

 

More panic over falling birth rate

It's like a parallel universe. At the environment meetings all the governments pledge to drop carbon emissions by numbers like 90%. What could be more helpful than people voluntarily deciding to reduce birth rates? But the growth advocates were never telling the truth about reducing carbon emissions, and their panic over birth rates gives them away. They are careful not to mix the two subjects, treating them as unrelated.

Japan has a worrying number of virgins, government finds | The Independent: "This is not unique to Japan -- in various parts of the developed world, economic uncertainty is reshaping the way millennials and other young people conceive of their sex lives and marital choices. But it's particularly pronounced in the Asian nation, where experts and government officials have spent the better part of a decade fretting over the country's population decline and, as WorldViews once put it, "sexual apathy.""

When cities are car-free, people will urbanize more, and birth rates will fall even faster. This is our best hope for long-term human survival. The carbon is already in the air. Along with zero emissions, we need to reduce the amount of human activity, regardless of energy source. Our population is going to reduce, one way or another. We should be grateful for those declining to have children, and make it easier for them.

Making urban public transport fare-free very doable and actually saves money

In urban areas, buses, trams, and such should be made fare-free. This will save money. Every municipality with cars can save. Even small towns. The money spent on traffic and parking enforcement alone would likely cover the lost fares in most cases. Then, the town would reap many more valuable benefits such as:

• fewer collisions
• more room
• peace and quiet
• safer cycling
• cleaner air
• more walking
• lower health costs
• less money exported for petrol
• you can probably think of several more 

See this list for ideas and send us your own.

See this blog for examples of successful free transit.

It's all about the oil in #Kirkuk - this pdf shows the panic

Iraqi Kurdistan Oil and Gas Outlook

...These issues all have to be tackled at a time when
the very structure of government in both Erbil and
Baghdad is severely constrained by polarization
in Kurdistan and by constant feuding in Baghdad
that is making it difficult, if not impossible, to form
a new broad-based cabinet. Moreover, the regional
background remains far from encouraging with the
multinational coalition making only slow progress in
the wars against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
(ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, and with ISIS continuing to
attack energy installations in federal Iraq and to
threaten hydrocarbon fields under Kurdish control...

What's going on in MiddleEast NorthAfrica - MENA? War on Islam.

Wars for energy are increasing and will continue to increase. Shifting allegiances are confusing, but there is a way to sort it out.

First, understand human survival hierarchy.

• Nature, (physics, thermodynamics) has the most power.
• Second is energy (usage, supply, demand).
• Third is economics (food, shelter).
• Last is finance (money, debt).

The corporate media is obsessed with who is on top, but to us, the people, we don't care. We don't want a top. But from their media, we get caught up in all the divisions of family, clan, tribe, nation, etc.

What is going on in MENA? All the finance people are trying to keep the interest payments coming in. To do that, they need to control the hi-net-energy fuel that is located there.

Unfortunately for them, Muslims stand in their way, so they have declared war on Islam.

One cost of not investing in #publictransit - $160B for congestion

nationalmemo: Drivers waste some $160 billion and 6.9 billion hours sitting in traffic. For the average motorist, that translates to almost two full days idling behind the wheel.

In 2010, poorly maintained public transit systems cost the economy $90 billion in lost time and wasted fuel. That number is expected to reach $570 billion annually by the end of this decade—and more than $1 trillion by 2040.

Economy Runs On Energy, Not Money

Seeking Alpha: "By the end of the 20th century, Berman explained we had gone through most of the easily accessible, cheap oil available around the world. As a result, production has been driven to explore for, more difficult to extract deposits.

"Those are all perfectly legitimate sources of oil, but because of the environment, the depth, the risk of the cost, all of a sudden oil got a lot more expensive," he said.

This is the heart of the issue, as oil prices are the determining factor when it comes to peak oil. In the 1990s, in terms of 2016 dollars, oil was around a third to a quarter the price it costs today to find and produce, Berman stated. As a result, the cost of everything that comes from oil is three or four times higher than it was just a couple of decades ago.

"From my perspective, the economy runs on energy, and money is nothing more than a call on energy," Berman said.

Oil is the master resource right now, he explained. The current weak economic growth we see around the world is a direct result of this, Berman added."

How corporate media lies. #whatisAleppo

The main way the US corporate media lies is not by what they tell you, but what they don't tell you. It is not surprising that a candidate for major office in the US has not heard of Aleppo, despite it being in the top ten world news stories for the last five years.

If you are getting your news from TV, it is time to turn it off. Use the web while you have it. It is like a yard sale, lots of junk, but many treasures, if you make an effort.

Take the bus, it is 10 times safer than your car

TheHill: "A new study conducted by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) found that the chance of being in an accident decreases by more than 90 percent when taking public transit instead of driving.

That makes public transportation about 10 times safer per mile than commuting by car, the study found. "

Campaign to increase birthrate crashes and burns in Italy - #degrowth

RT News: "A government ad campaign to boost one of the world’s lowest birth rates has wrapped up before due term after critics dismissed it as patronizing, accusatory and sexist.
On Friday, Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzin said she would make unspecified “changes” to a campaign that began only Wednesday, and was meant to build up to Fertility Day, scheduled for September 22, when public festivals staffed with doctors, family advisers and baby product sales reps are supposed to take place in four cities across the country."

While scientists are consistently ringing alarm bells about human growth, capitalism is desperate to stop falling birthrates.

November 8, Americans can vote $200 billion for #publictransit

Mass Transit: "A media press call on transit ballot initiatives will be held on Monday, September 12 from 12:15 – 1:15 p.m. PDT. This year on November 8, nearly $200 billion in public transit referendums will be held. In Los Angeles, if Measure R is passed, $98 billion for public transit will be available over 30 years. In Seattle, $54 billion for public transportation is at stake; in Atlanta, $2.5 billion for public transit is up for a vote. Reporters are welcome to come in person or listen by phone. Representatives of public transportation agencies from Los Angeles, Seattle, Atlanta, San Jose, and Columbus, OH will discuss their local ballot initiatives. Contact Virginia Miller at vmiller@apta.com, if you are interested in attending in person or by phone."

Electric cars, even if all solar-electric, will still boil the oceans

Oil Change International: "The FT points out that although subsidies for buying an electric vehicle are available in most European countries as well as China, the US, Turkey and Canada, “in almost all of these, the current schemes will expire within five years.”

However, once electric vehicles can bring the cost down to that of a conventional vehicle then analysts believe the number of electric vehicles will soar."

Prepare for a shift from the subsidized petrol car to the subsidized electric car. This just means replacing oil with electricity generated by burning natural gas.

But let's assume that all electricity comes from renewables.

It still means that all the hell unleashed by the automobile - sprawl, growth, and wars - will be extended longer into the future.

But something is different this time. Heat.

The carbon is already in the air. The earth is already hot. Even if carbon emissions are zero or negative, we will still generate more heat.

Human activity generates heat. That heat can only leave the planet at a fixed rate. If we continue growth, we will boil the oceans, regardless of what we burn.

The only solution is rapid degrowth. If we abolish the automobile and urbanize, birth rates will fall.